IN THIS ISSUE:
o
Next Regional
Meeting Scheduled for Saturday, January 31, 2004…Dick Freeman will be our
Keynote Speaker
o
All-time Padres Team…Our Thoughts!
o
We Thought You’d Never Ask…Nicknames by Position
o
Extra Base Hits…Some Facts, Some Trivia
o
Allan Roth (LA) SABR Chapter News…Regional Meeting
Scheduled for Saturday, February 7, 2004
o
Chapter Members in the News
o
Catchers ERA (CERA)
o
Member John Nunes Article in Elysian Fields Quarterly
o
Baseball Biography Project…New Website
o
Thinking About the Holidays…How About Some Baseball
Gift Cards?
o
SABR Deadball Era Committee
o
More Re: Deadball Stars
NEXT REGIONAL MEETING…
“SUPER BOWL SATURDAY,”
JANUARY 31, 2004
We have
another loaded program with plenty of variety.
Leading off will be our keynote speaker, Dick Freeman, President of the
San Diego Padres. We are fortunate to
have Dick join us and give us the latest in developments for the 2004 ballclub,
and an update on Petco Park.
On tap are
a couple of members who have research presentations: Amy Essington will update us
on her research related to "Integration of the Pacific Coast League in
San Diego, 1948" and, as an introduction to the subject, Bill Swank will offer a personal
biography of the late San Diegan, and former PCL Padres player, John
Ritchey. We also have brought back
after a few year’s absence, Andy McCue
and his popular baseball “Books on Parade.”
Andy also serves SABR in a variety of ways, notably as a Board member
and chair of the Bibliography Committee.
The
specific starting time and location are still being worked out. However, you can plan on our meeting time being
9:30 a.m. as usual. Watch for final
details in our next e-News.
ALL-TIME PADRES TEAM…
OUR THOUGHTS!
Chapter
members Frank Myers and Jay Walker led our Chapter’s efforts in
coming up with our version of the All-Time Padres as they closed out their
final season in Qualcomm Stadium. Their
resulting article was produced in the September issue of Padres Magazine. In case
you didn’t obtain a copy, below is the article. We have also inserted the vote results from the fans after each
of our Chapter’s selections.
“Who is
SABR and why do their selections of all-time Padres get their own article? SABR
(pronounced saber) stands for the Society for American Baseball Research, a
group founded in 1971 that has grown to over 6,000 strong. While SABR encourages research into all
facets of baseball and will gladly accept the mathematically challenged as
members, it has a reputation as something of a gathering place for the
statistically nerdy, er, adept fans. If
you holler out “Bring in the lefty to
face Bonds” and someone two rows down
says “Actually our lefty is a ground ball inducer and Bonds hit 56% more
dingers off ground ball pitchers than fly ball pitchers”, you’ve probably just
encountered a SABR member.
When the
Padres distributed ballots to their fans to select an all-time Padres team, the
100+ members of the local SABR chapter were also invited to apply their methods
and choose their own version of the Padres dream team. After ballpark-effect-adjusting this and
normalizing that and immersing themselves knee-deep in numbers, here is the
team they came up with:
Starting
Pitcher (3 positions) – A real horse race. Randy
Jones won by acclimation, but battling for place and show were the
tightly-bunched pack of Andy Ashby, Andy Benes, Dave Dravecky, Bruce
Hurst, Clay Kirby and Eric Show.
The late, enigmatic Show (100 wins as a Padre) emerged by a length as
one choice, while Andy Benes was a nose in front of Bruce Hurst for the final
spot.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Jones (64.4%) 5. Dravecky (21.6%) 8.
Benes (15.5%)
2.
Brown (45%) 6. Show (20.8%) 9.
Whitson (10.8%)
3.
Perry (33.4%) 7. Hitchcock (20.1%) 10. Hurst (7.9%)
4.
Ashby (33%)
Catcher – this position featured the
only player not on the Padres fan ballot to generate some discussion and
support, Gene Tenace. (Wonder why? Check out his on-base percentage). But most regard Terry Kennedy and
Benito Santiago as the two best catchers in franchise history, and the SABR
crew favored Kennedy by a small margin.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Santiago
(55.8%) 4. Kendall (8.5%)
2.
Kennedy (22%) 5. Cannizzaro (1.7%)
3.
Hernandez
(9.6%)
First
Base - Fred McGriff didn’t stay in town long enough
(less than 3 years). The SABR choice
went to one of the early Padre stars and still their all-time career home run
leader, Nate Colbert.
Consideration of the era (early 70’s) and park factors (no inside home
run fence) aided in the choice. Ryan
Klesko’s credentials may exceed Colbert’s in a few years.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Garvey
(27.4%) 4. McGriff (15%)
2.
Klesko
(21.2%) 5. Joyner (14.5%)
3.
Colbert (20.4%)
Second
Base - the
position with the fewest solid candidates.
Robbie Alomar was just beginning his career, but his 3 years with
the Padres prior to his trade to Toronto were deemed sufficient to overcome
challenges from Tim Flannery and Bip Roberts.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Alomar (47.8%) 4. Roberts (9.9%)
2.
Flannery
(22.2%) 5. Veras (6.7%)
3.
Wiggins
(10.9%)
Third
Base - this came
down to a Ken Caminiti vs. Phil Nevin battle, and Cammy was felt to have
a close but clear advantage.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Caminti (52.1%) 4. Sheffield (14.1%)
2.
Nevin (14.8%) 5. Spiezio (1.9%)
3.
Nettles
(14.6%)
Shortstop
- while Ozzie Smith may be in the Hall of Fame, it wasn’t his 4 years as
a Padre that got him there. Brilliant
as he was in the field (and many feel there was none better than Oz in a Padre
uniform), a composite .230 batting average and .278 slugging average represent
a lot of runs that were never scored. Garry
Templeton played solid shortstop for a decade with the Padres and gets the
nod.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Smith (52.9%) 4. Fernandez (4.9%)
2.
Templeton (30.6%) 5. Hernandez (2.8%)
3.
Gomez (7.4%0
Outfield
(3 positions) - Tony
Gwynn and Dave Winfield are no-brainers. The contest for the third
spot generated the most heated discussion of the day, and the debate soon
narrowed down to Steve Finley vs. Gene Richards. When the dust had cleared, Richards garnered
the final outfield spot by a single vote.
Richards batted .291 in his 7 years as a Padre and ranks 2nd behind
Gwynn in Padre career stolen bases.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Gwynn (93.1%) 5. Kotsay (16.8%) 8. Kruk
(7.9%)
2.
Winfield (65.2%) 6. Vaughn (14%) 9. Richards (5.0%)
3.
Finley (42%) 7. McReynolds (9.8%) 10. Gaston (4.8%)
4.
Henderson
(25.3%)
Closer - Rollie Fingers and Goose
Gossage had some good years with the Padres, but Trevor Hoffman is the
clear #1 choice here.
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Hoffman (77.9%) 4. Davis (3.1%)
2.
Fingers
(9.5%) 5. Lefferts (0.8%)
3.
Gossage (8%)
Manager - one participant said his head
liked Dick Williams but his heart preferred Bruce Bochy, so he was voting
Bochy. Another one said his head wanted
Bochy but his heart liked Williams. He
also was voting Bochy. While sentiment
was there for Williams, the vote was decidedly in Bochy’s favor.”
Fans’ Selections:
1.
Bochy (64.7%) 4. McNamara (4.5%)
2.
Williams (18.2%) 5. Gomez (4.3%)
3.
McKeon (6.4%)
So the
final All-Time Padres Team, at least the way SABR sees it, and compared to the
fans is as follows:
SABR Fans’
Starting Pitcher - Randy
Jones þ
Starting Pitcher - Eric
Show Kevin Brown
Starting Pitcher - Andy
Benes Gaylord Perry
Catcher – Terry
Kennedy Benito
Santiago
First Base – Nate
Colbert Steve Garvey
Second Base – Roberto Alomar þ
Third Base – Ken
Caminiti þ
Shortstop – Garry
Templeton Ozzie Smith
Outfielder – Tony
Gwynn þ
Outfielder – Dave
Winfield þ
Outfielder – Gene
Richards SteveFinley
Closer – Trevor
Hoffman þ
Manager – Bruce
Bochy þ
WE THOUGHT YOU’D NEVER ASK…
NICKNAMES BY POSITION
SABR
member Frank Solensky frank@SOLENSKY.ORG
came up with the frequency of nicknames by position:
P: 119 Lefty C: 9 Red 1B: 8 Dutch, Lefty
17
Red 4 Dutch, Doc 5 Red, Moose, Big Bill, Doc
13 Doc
11 Dutch
2B:
10 Red 3B: 8
Red OF: 15 Red, Lefty
6
Dutch 7 Dutch 10 Doc
4 Mike, Deacon
5 Rabbit
A player
is counted at each position played.
Players with multiple nicknames weren't counted as separate entries: it
might alter the frequencies a bit but not by a lot. The nickname 'Stretch' shows up only eight times, five of them
being connected to Jack Phillips (1B 1947-49 NY Yankees; 1B, 3B, P 1949-52
Pittsburgh; 1B, 2B, 3B, OF 1955-56 Detroit).
EXTRA BASE HITS…
SOME FACTS, SOME TRIVIA
Here are
some statistics developed by SABR member Clifford
Otto, subs1@OTTOEXEC.ORG, related
to extra base hits as a percentage of hits.
Please note that all these numbers were taken from the Lahman 5.0
database and only include stats through 2002, so there could be some changes
when the 2003 numbers are included.
Players
with at least 3000 career hits:
%ExBH Player %ExBH Player %ExBH Player
40.30% Willie Mays 30.55% Robin Yount 24.46% Pete Rose
39.17% Hank Aaron 29.08% Honus Wagner 24.29% Tony Gwynn
37.93% Stan Musial 28.84% Paul Waner 23.99% Cap Anson
35.48% George Brett 28.71% Paul Molitor 21.26% Rod Carew
35.14% Dave Winfield 28.62%
Rickey Henderson 20.27% Eddie Collins
33.86% Cal Ripken Jr. 28.20%
Roberto Clemente
33.84% Carl Yastrzemski 27.82% Nap Lajoie
33.76% Eddie Murray 27.12% Ty Cobb
32.32% Al Kaline 25.67% Lou Brock
32.19% Tris Speaker 25.15% Wade Boggs
Players
with at least 2000 career hits and an extra-base hit percentage
of 40%, or
better:
%ExBH Player %ExBH Player
48.74% Barry Bonds 41.60% Reggie Jackson
47.20% Babe Ruth 40.52% Eddie Mathews
45.43% Mike Schmidt 40.34% Joe Carter
43.73% Lou Gehrig 40.30% Frank Robinson
42.82% Ken Griffey Jr. 40.30% Willie
Mays
42.70% Willie Stargell 40.23% Johnny
Mize
42.52% Harmon Killebrew 40.17% Duke
Snider
42.21% Jimmie Foxx
42.09% Ted Williams
41.61% Willie McCovey
The other
end of the spectrum (below 20%) for players with at least 2000
career hits:
%ExBH Player %ExBH Player
12.56% Maury Wills 17.42% Billy Hamilton
13.23% Patsy Donovan 17.68%
Richie Ashburn
14.29% Willie Keeler 18.00%
Stuffy McInnis
16.54% Fred Tenney 18.73% Deacon White
16.78% John Ward 18.85% Nellie Fox
17.16% Larry Bowa 19.45% Brett Butler
17.24% Clyde Milan 19.68% Willie Randolph
17.32% Lloyd Waner
Players
with at least 10,000 career at bats:
At
Bats
%ExBH Player At Bats %ExBH Player
10006 40.30%
Frank Robinson 10195 32.19%
Tris Speaker
10881 40.30%
Willie Mays 11008 30.55%
Robin Yount
12364 39.17%
Hank Aaron 10430 29.08%
Honus Wagner
10972 37.93%
Stan Musial 10654 28.72%
Brooks Robinson
10349 35.48%
George Brett 10835 28.71%
Paul Molitor
11003 35.14%
Dave Winfield 10889 28.62%
Rickey Henderson
11551 33.86%
Cal Ripken Jr. 11434 27.12%
Ty Cobb
11988 33.84%
Carl Yastrzemski 10332 25.67%
Lou Brock
11336 33.76%
Eddie Murray 14053 24.46%
Pete Rose
10116 32.32%
Al Kaline 10277 23.99%
Cap Anson
10078 22.46%
Rabbit Maranville
10230 21.26% Luis Aparicio
The
leaders in extra-base percentage for various levels of career at bats, and the
number of players exceeding the threshold:
At Bats 40%+ Leader Player
4000+.... 56 51.72% Mark
McGwire
3000-3999 19 49.28% Carlos
Delgado
2000-2999 16 46.84% Troy
Glaus
1000-1999 22 47.02% Lance
Berkman
500-999
24 53.09% Bobby
Estelella
The other
end of the spectrum for extra-base percentage for various levels of career at
bats, and the number of players below the threshold:
At Bats <20% Worst Player
4000+.... 98
10.41% Roy Thomas
3000-3999 64
11.55% Mike Tresh
2000-2999 120
9.02% Morrie Rath
1000-1999 316
7.49% Dickey Pearce
500-999
475 1.64% Ned
Garvin
ALLAN ROTH SABR CHAPTER NEWS…
MEETING SCHEDULED FOR
FEBRUARY 7, 2004
Notes
from the Roth Chapter’s President, Stephen
Roney…”First off, I have scheduled the AAF for a
meeting on the first Saturday in February, which is February 7. This will be the
standard 10am to 3pm meeting. As always, I need research presentations. Additionally, I
will be attempting to acquire a speaker that I can announce in time for the
final announcement.”
CHAPTER MEMBERS IN THE NEWS
Andy Strasberg was featured in the September Padres Magazine in an article about his
management of the variety of activities related to the last year of Major
League baseball in San Diego/Jack Murphy/Qualcomm Stadium.
In the
Baseball Hall of Fame’s Summer 2003 newsletter, Memories and Dreams, Bob
Boynton was recognized for his research contributions to the Hall in their
preparation of reference files for each World Series ever played. Bob helped with those Series games in which
the Indians and Padres played.
James D. Smith authored an article for the
recent SABR publication, The National
Pastime, No. 23, entitled “George Brace, Baseball’s Foremost Photographer.”
CATCHERS
ERA (CERA)…
PADRES
ERA / GARY BENNETT CERA
Our Chapter received this question from Joey Graziano: “the Padres'
staff ERA is currently at 4.91, while Gary Bennett's CERA is only at 3.88 (a
1.03 differential). Although I'm not
sure how much can be read into this, it strikes me as a pretty impressive stat.
Has there ever been a catcher with a
CERA a full point lower than their staff ERA?”
Coming to the rescue was Chuck Rosciam (baseballcatchers@comcast.net):
“A few years ago I began an extensive study of Catcher's Earned Run Average (CERA) using data available from Retrosheet. After a few months I got bogged down in the vast amount of data and put the study on hold. However, I do have almost complete data from 1990-2002 and complete data for some catchers.”